Leasing activity normalizes, development stays tight, Rays’ stadium search looms over year ahead
On the surface, it appears that Tampa Bay’s retail market is entering 2026 on a weaker footing than it was just a year ago.
Availability has ticked up to just under 4%, compared to the record low of 3.5% seen in 2023 and 2024. Negative absorption over the past 12 months reflects the impact of national bankruptcies and store closures, which have ripple effects throughout the region.
Yet, Tampa Bay remains one of the country’s strongest retail markets, and three themes could shape the year ahead: a cooling leasing environment, a construction pipeline that remains constrained and the long-running question of where the Tampa Bay Rays will call home.
Leasing volume could cool from 2025 rebound
Backfill opportunities fueled the surge in leasing in 2025. Nearly every lease over 25,000 square feet involved repurposing recently vacated space, given the lack of new supply. Those newfound availabilities drove 4.4 million square feet of leasing, a nearly 20% jump from the nine-year low recorded in 2024. But that rebound was likely a temporary short-term bump. Much of the prime space has already been leased, and with fewer large blocks available, leasing activity is expected to cool in 2026. Retailers remain active, but the pace is likely to moderate as the market adjusts to a smaller pool of opportunities.
Construction likely to stay limited outside of build-to-suits, mixed-use or redevelopment
Another reason why there are fewer leasing opportunities in Tampa Bay is that new retail development has been scarce for years, and 2026 will likely be no exception. Just 620,000 square feet is under construction, including a 170,000-square-foot Walmart build-to-suit in Apollo Beach. Most projects are small, preleased and focused on single-tenant or grocery-anchored formats.
High construction costs and prolonged entitlement timelines continue to deter speculative development, leaving only 182,000 square feet of new construction space currently available for lease.
Redevelopment and mixed-use projects offer some promise: Britton Plaza could undergo a major refresh, and Westshore Plaza, a legacy mall located a mile south of Tampa International Airport, is currently on the market with strong expectations for a mixed-use transformation. These projects could redefine retail footprints in the region, but timelines remain uncertain.
Where will the Tampa Bay Rays land?
The cancellation of the Tropicana Field redevelopment and the Rays’ ownership change in 2025 have reignited a familiar debate: where will the team build its next home? The new ownership group is seeking approximately 100 acres for a mixed-use site, a move that could significantly reshape retail dynamics wherever it is located.
In January 2026, the Tampa Bay Rays and Hillsborough College reached a non-binding memorandum of understanding that allows the team and junior college to negotiate and explore building a ballpark and a mixed-use development across the street from Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
A new ballpark would ripple through the hospitality, office and retail sectors, while a departure from Tropicana Field could challenge businesses that rely on game-day traffic. For now, the uncertainty looms large, and the decision will be one of the most consequential for Tampa Bay in 2026.
The big picture
Tampa Bay’s retail market is entering a transitional phase. Leasing momentum from 2025 is likely to taper as backfill opportunities dwindle, while construction remains constrained by high costs and tight timelines. Redevelopment and mixed-use concepts offer a path forward, but large-scale speculative projects are unlikely. Meanwhile, the Rays’ stadium decision stands as a wildcard with the potential to reshape retail corridors for decades to come.
Data is courtesy of. CoStar Analytics
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If you’re considering a move in the next 6–18 months, let’s have a conversation. https://gulfatlanticrealestate.com/sell-your-property/
